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The Chinese Economy: Transitions and Growth Barry Naughton
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China's economy is forecast to boom from 2013, but this may not necessarily translate into a big price rally for metals, as intensity of usage is leveling off in the country due to changes in its economic growth model. The country's balance sheet continues to deteriorate – and the most recent growth spurt implies faster deterioration – and this, ultimately, is the main constraint of the Chinese growth model." SHCOMP vs HSI or Industrial Output vs Doing so of course will only make the adjustment longer and more painful, but given how difficult politically the transition to a balanced economy is likely to be, we would be crazy to expect otherwise. Prior to the Industrial Revolution, craftsmen and farmers When China's market transition started in 1979, Deng Xiaoping adopted a pragmatic, dual-track approach, rather than the “Washington Consensus” formula of rapid privatization and trade liberalization. SPEECH – CHINESE ECONOMIC GROWTH AND IMPLICATIONS FOR THE AUSTRALIAN ECONOMY. Can China's economy keep growing despite recent slowdowns? Second, China's leadership transition will turn out to be relatively smooth later this year and the new leadership under President Xi Jinping will continue to embrace the economic transformation project outlined above. Manufacturers in the United States, China and Europe struggled last month as demand fell, suggesting an ailing world economy that still needs a steady diet of central bank support. In my recent book Demystifying the Chinese Economy, I argue that, for any country at any time, the foundation for sustained growth is technological innovation. The Chinese pattern of rapid growth with structural change has been accompanied by rising economic imbalances, just as the main pillars of growth seem to be gradually weakening. Mao's death in 1976 facilitated the transition that took place under Deng Xiaoping. I think of China's growth model as merely a more muscular version of the Japanese or East Asian growth model, which is itself partly based on the American experience. High and sustained GDP growth rates were based on elevated The metamorphosis of the dragon may involve painful growing pains, including the risks of a hard landing that many analysts attribute to the current transition. She said that the economic transition taking place in China – less reliance on fixed asset investment and more consumption – will impact demand growth for industrial metals. But it is also due to the growing place of China in international relations, following from its economic development. One of the key challenges facing China's new leaders will be how to keep the world's second largest economy on track. Address to the Africa Down Under Conference Perth.